International Congress on Eurasian Economies

International Conference on Eurasian Economies

5-7 October 2017 – Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN

Paper detail

Paper ID : 2012
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Macroeconomics
Presenter: Ph.D. candidate Galip Afsin Ravanoglu
Session : 4C Finans II

The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rates on Kyrgyzstan Export
Kırgızistan’da Faiz ve Kur Politikalarinin İhracat Üzerine Etkisi


In the Keynesian models, such as Mundell-Fleming model, it is accepted that there is a significant relationship between interest rates and the value of national currency. When interest rate increases, demand for assets in terms of national currency rises and the value of national currency ascends, but in this case because of diminishing exports, the balance of trade deteriorates. In this study, it is stressed that the value of national currency is determined by productivity and output increasing. This study analysis export, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation relationship for Kyrgyzstan economy for the period of 2002:1-2017:4 The VAR granger causality method is used to get the relationship among the variables used in this study. The result of VAR granger causality test shows that there is causality from exchange rate to inflation. Also, it has been found that there has been causality running from inflation to interest rate.

JEL codes:

Sekmen, Fuat , Ravanoglu, Galip Afsin (2017). "The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rates on Kyrgyzstan Export" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2017, pp.346-349, Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN.


Full paper in PDF format.

Session 4C: Finans II

Eurasian Economists Association Kyrgyzstan-Turkey Manas University Beykent University Doğuş University