Paper ID : 1864
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Sectoral Analyses
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Barış Aslan
Session : 1B Dış Ticaret I
The Econometric Analysis in the Sectorial Basis of Income and Price Effects on the Foreign Trade Deficits: The Case of Turkey
Dış Ticaret Açıklarında Gelir ve Fiyat Etkisinin Sektörel Bazda Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Ş. Mustafa Ersungur (Atatürk University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Barış Aslan (Bingöl University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Ömer Doru (Şırnak University, Türkiye)
In Turkey which is one of the countries whose current account deficit has been chronic from the 1980s until today, the most important reason for the current account deficit is foreign trade deficit. The aim of our study in this context is to shed light on policies oriented foreign trade deficits by examining foreign trade of intermediate and capital goods which are one of the most important causes of foreign trade deficits in Turkey, in terms of income and exchange rate indicators. In the study in which the Marshall-Lerner condition and the foreign and domestic income elasticities were tested separately for each model, the Econometric method and quartile data between 1998 to 2014 were used. The results of the study showed that Marshall-Lerner condition is not valid in foreign trade of any goods group, and domestic and foreign income variable coefficients are strong effect on both imports and exports. In the direction of these results, we think that the economic policies to be developed for domestic and foreign revenues will be more effective than the real exchange rate policies for being decreased the foreign trade deficits of both intermediate and capital goods in Turkey.
JEL codes: F14
Ersungur, Ş. Mustafa, Aslan, Mehmet Barış, Doru, Ömer (2017). "The Econometric Analysis in the Sectorial Basis of Income and Price Effects on the Foreign Trade Deficits: The Case of Turkey" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2017, pp.168-177, Istanbul, TURKEY.
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Session 1B: Dış Ticaret I