International Conference on Eurasian Economies
12-14 October 2011 – Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN
Paper detail
Paper ID : 378
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Labor Economics and Migration
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mustafa Ercilasun
Session : 5B Büyüme ve Gelişme I
Modeling the Determinants of Internal Migration in Turkey
Türkiye’deki İç Göçleri Belirleyen Faktörlerin Modellenmesi
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Mustafa Ercilasun (Yeni Yüzyıl University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Ayşen Hiç Gencer (Istanbul Beykent University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Özgür Ömer Ersin (Istanbul Commerce University, Türkiye)
Abstract
This paper aims to investigate major determinants of interprovincial migration in Turkey until 2010. In recent decades the magnitude of migration in absolute terms has increased considerably: During 1975-1980, 3.6 million people migrated, which constitutes 9.4% of the total population. These numbers have increased to 6.7 million people and 11.2% in the 1995-2000 period. The rate of increase is especially tremendous for the 1985-1990 period with 41%. Over the years the composition of migration has also changed: In the past rural-to-urban migration was predominant; however, today there is remarkable amount of urban-to-urban migration. During 1975-1980, 66% of the total migrants were towards urban centers, which increased to 75% during 1995-2000. On the other hand, the percentage of total migrants towards the village centers declined from 34 to 25 in the respective periods. From 2008 on, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) started publishing yearly unemployment statistics at provincial level, which permits an analysis of Turkey’s migration patterns within the Harris-Todaro framework. Moreover since 2007, TUIK started implementing Address Based Population Registration System, which enables tracking migration moves continuously, rather than by intermittent five to ten year periods. However, data was not adequate to test Turkey’s migration within the Harris-Todaro framework, especially due to lack of average wages at the provincial level. Therefore, utilizing the 2010 provincial level data, we tried to explain Turkey’s internal migration based on variables such as population born outside of their current province, number of university students, and a proxy variable we developed for average wages.
JEL codes: J61, O15, R23
Ercilasun, Mustafa, Gencer, Ayşen Hiç, Ersin, Özgür Ömer (2011). "Modeling the Determinants of Internal Migration in Turkey" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2011, pp.319-324, Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C02.00378
Session 5B: Büyüme ve Gelişme I
