International Conference on Eurasian Economies

1-3 July 2014 – Skopje, MACEDONIA

Paper detail

Paper ID : 863
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Growth and Development
Presenter: Ph.D. candidate Yağmur Sağlam
Session : 6B Uluslararası Ekonomi I

Real Exchange Rate Effects on Trade and Immiserizing Growth: The Case of Turkey 2003-2013
Reel Döviz Kuru’nun Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi ve Yoksullaştıran Büyüme: 2003-2013 Türkiye Örneği

• Ph.D. candidate Yağmur Sağlam (Dokuz Eylül University, Türkiye)
• Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Avni Egeli (Dokuz Eylül University, Türkiye)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the long run relationship between real exchange rates and trade within terms of immiserizing growth for Turkey. The relationship between real exchange rates and trade are taking into consideration with two approach which are pass-through and standard theory. So it is observed that which approach is valid for Turkey. Also we tried to see if trade policies which on terms of trade create immiserizing growth or not during the period. We used unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) analysis to see the relationship between real exchange rate and trade rate, growth. Also we added a dummy into the VAR which demonstrate the structural break for global economic crisis as an exogenous variable. The results of the application are; in the long term there is no cointegration between trade rate and real exchange rates and growth. So for the short term; the dummy was statistically significant and affects the distribution of series; the relationship between trade rate and real exchange rates are very weak and rarely supports the Standard Theory. Also terms of trade impacts growth rate positively but the effects of growth rate on terms of trade is indeterminate. So there is not an immiserizing growth in Turkey for the period between 2003 and 2013.

JEL codes: C32, F43, O11

Sağlam, Yağmur, Egeli, Hüseyin Avni (2014). "Real Exchange Rate Effects on Trade and Immiserizing Growth: The Case of Turkey 2003-2013" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2014, pp.419-427, Skopje, MACEDONIA.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C05.00863

Full paper in PDF format.

Session 6B: Uluslararası Ekonomi I