International Conference on Eurasian Economies
17-18 September 2013 – St. Petersburg, RUSSIA
Paper detail
Paper ID : 774
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : International Trade and Globalization
Presenter: Prof. Dr. Mehmet Balcılar
Session : 6B Uluslararası Ticaret II
Turkey’s Export Performance: Examining the Main Determinants of Export Volume (1995-2012)
Türkiye’nin İhracat Performansı: İhracat Hacminin Temel Belirleyicilerinin İncelenmesi (1995-2012)
- Prof. Dr. Mehmet Balcılar (Eastern Mediterranean University, TR of Northern Cyprus)
- Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Neşe Algan (Çukurova University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Demiral (Ömer Halisdemir University, Türkiye)
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to investigate the short and the long run relationships between export performance proxied by export volume index and real effective exchange rate changes in Turkey using the aggregated quarterly data sets covering the period of 1995-2012. The other factors that are expected to affect export performance such as wage, foreign income, productivity, trend GDP and exchange rate volatility are also added to the model. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is performed in the estimation process. The causalities among the variables in the model are determined based on the estimated ARDL models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real effective exchange rate coefficient is significantly positive in the short run whereas negative in the long run and exchange rate volatility has no significant effect on export performance in contrast with theoretical expectations. Other evidences indicate that the recent export boom in Turkey can be explained by wages, productivity and world demand, rather than exchange rate changes. Consequently, findings suggest that policies that depressing wages and stimulating high productivity can help export sectors increase their export volume and competitiveness in Turkey.
JEL codes: C32, F14, F31
Balcılar, Mehmet, Bal, Harun, Algan, Neşe, Demiral, Mehmet (2013). "Turkey’s Export Performance: Examining the Main Determinants of Export Volume (1995-2012)" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2013, pp.469-478, St. Petersburg, RUSSIA.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C04.00774
Session 6B: Uluslararası Ticaret II
