International Conference on Eurasian Economies
17-18 September 2013 – St. Petersburg, RUSSIA
Paper detail
Paper ID : 711
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Regional Economics
Presenter: Prof. Dr. Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Session : 4B Orta Asya Ekonomileri
The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility, Reserve Volatility and Real Interest Rates on Trade: Applications on Transition Economies
Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı, Rezerv Oynaklığı ve Reel Faiz Oranlarının Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkileri: Geçiş Ekonomileri Üzerine Uygulamalar
- Prof. Dr. Cevat Gerni (Istanbul Beykent University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Selahattin Sarı (Doğuş University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Dilek Özdemir (Atatürk University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Ömer Selçuk Emsen (Atatürk University, Türkiye)
Abstract
On the basis of volatility or sharp fluctuations in macroeconomic variables, especially in the 1970s, it can be said to play a role in deepening the financial capital deepening. Deepening on volatility forms the basis of not only domestic and but also international economic deviations. With the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, a lot of countries have attempted to liberalize. This situation has caused volatility on mainly rate of exchange then many macroeconomics variables. In this aspect, the multi-relationship between volatility in foreign trade balance and the real interest rate, exchange rate and reserves’ volatility are investigated empirically with the appropriate set of data on 11 transition economies for the period 1996-2011. In this study, the effects of the volatility of foreign trade (netxvol) on the exchange rate volatility (kurvol), reserve volatility (rezvol), and real interest rates subjected with using panel data analysis. Moreover to regression analysis, centred on Granger Causality Test the volatility of the foreign trade balance, import and export volatility, exchange rate volatility, volatility of reserves and try to determine the causal relationship between the real interest rate. The findings have light on that the volatility of trade balance was mostly affected to the volatility of the reserve. It may well be said that the volatility of the interest rate and the exchange rate at the independence of the trade predispose to speculative movements.
JEL codes: C31, F32, F44
Gerni, Cevat, Sarı, Selahattin, Özdemir, Dilek, Emsen, Ömer Selçuk (2013). "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility, Reserve Volatility and Real Interest Rates on Trade: Applications on Transition Economies" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2013, pp.412-419, St. Petersburg, RUSSIA.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C04.00711
Session 4B: Orta Asya Ekonomileri
