International Conference on Eurasian Economies
10-12 July 2017 – Istanbul, TURKEY
Paper detail
Paper ID : 1921
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Growth and Development
Presenter: Prof. Dr. Murat Nişancı
Session : 2C Büyüme
A Glance of China with Lewis' Two Sector Growth Modelling: Has Been Reached to Growth Limit?
Lewis’in İki Sektörlü Büyüme Modeline Çin Özelinde Bakış: Büyümenin Sınırlarına Gelindi mi?
- Prof. Dr. Murat Nişancı (Erzincan University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Selahattin Sarı (Doğuş University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Aslı Cansın Doker (Erzincan Binali Yildirim University, Türkiye)
- Prof. Dr. Ahmet Alkan Çelik (Istanbul Beykent University, Türkiye)
Abstract
The growth model developed by Lewis depends on availability of cheap and sustainable labor and this can be explained by a country on the path of industrialization, rural / urban population in the agricultural sector / industry is the labor store. In this approach, which is based on in particular the labor-intensive growth model, the labor demand that the investments will need, will be met by the rural labor store. In Lewis's model, it is important to prevent uncontrolled migration to the urban area in order for the mechanism to function. This, however, is only possible with a very authoritarian government aspect. In this framework, China's industrialization process is worthy of examination in the Lewis model's perspective. In the study, urbanization and its dynamics were analyzed in China between 1960 and 2015 by RStduio programming. Thus, research has been conducted on how long the industrialization of China, which constitutes the dynamics of economic development, can be sustained by the function of rural workforce storage. According to the analysis by the HoltWinters method, it can be said that the Chinese economy's growth form based on the labor store will continue for the next 20 years. However, according to findings, it can be argued that when China reaches the limits of this growth form, socio-economic inertia will become inevitable if it does not push the capital-intensive and transition to technology-containing growth phase.
JEL codes: O41, P25, C53
Nişancı, Murat, Sarı, Selahattin, Doker, Aslı Cansın, Çelik, Ahmet Alkan (2017). "A Glance of China with Lewis' Two Sector Growth Modelling: Has Been Reached to Growth Limit?" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2017, pp.339-347, Istanbul, TURKEY.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C08.01921
