International Conference on Eurasian Economies
1-3 July 2014 – Skopje, MACEDONIA
Paper detail
Paper ID : 1165
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Growth and Development
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Bekir Aşık
Session : 7D Makroekonomi II
The Effects of Structural Shocks on Turkish Economy
Yapısal Şokların Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkileri
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Bekir Aşık (Istanbul Beykent University, Türkiye)
Abstract
This paper investigates the role of the real business cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with different shocks for a small open economy. The main goal of this study is to compare the effects of different structural shocks on the macroeconomic fluctuations of Turkey. Different types of shocks are employed, such as temporary shocks, trend growth shocks, and world interest rate shock as driving forces. In addition to investigating the effects of different shocks, we consider the effects of working capital requirements and spread as friction. Variance decompositions are computed to assess the role of shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations. I fit the model to the data using Bayesian techniques to determine which shock has the most impact on the business cycles of Turkish economy over the period from the first quarter of 1988 to the last quarter of 2012. The main findings are: (1) output, consumption, and investment growth are mostly driven by the trend growth shocks and temporary shocks are less important. (2) Trade balance growth are driven by world interest rate shocks. (3) Real business model is not successful to replicate the some of the key features of economic fluctuations.
JEL codes: C11, E32, F41
Aşık, Bekir (2014). "The Effects of Structural Shocks on Turkish Economy" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2014, pp.951-956, Skopje, MACEDONIA.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C05.01165
