International Conference on Eurasian Economies
1-3 July 2014 – Skopje, MACEDONIA
Paper detail
Paper ID : 1106
Status : Paper published
Language : English
Topic : Regional Economics
Presenter: Prof. Dr. Viktor Barhatov
Session : 6A Microeconomics
Forecasting of Economic Efficiency of the City-Forming Enterprise in the Monotown
Forecasting of Economic Efficiency of the City-Forming Enterprise in the Monotown
- Ph.D. candidate Oksana Gurieva (Chelyabinsk State University, Russia)
- Prof. Dr. Viktor Barhatov (Chelyabinsk State University, Russia)
Abstract
Research objective is development of the forecast of scenario conditions of increase of economic efficiency of the city-forming enterprise of the monotown for further social and economic development of the region for 2014-2016. For achievement of a goal a number of tasks is solved: consideration of theoretical prerequisites to concept economic efficiency; research of features of economic efficiency of the city-forming enterprise in the monotown; choice of a method of forecasting; forecasting of economic efficiency of the city-forming enterprise. When carrying out research scenario approaches and expert methods of forecasting are used. The main versions of the forecast – option 1 (conservative), option 2 (moderate and optimistical) and option 3 (forced) – are developed on the basis of a uniform hypothesis of external conditions and differ with models of behavior of the enterprises of the monotown, and as with prospects of increase of their efficiency. It is established that at realization of all versions of the forecast economic efficiency of the city-forming enterprise of the monotown increases. However quality of this increase in considered scenarios of the forecast of social and economic development of the region variously. As the most acceptable the moderate and optimistical option is recognized, so at its realization economic efficiency will increase on the average 0,7 items above, than in option 1. The moderate and optimistical option is more focused on innovations, assumes carrying out transformations in development of the human capital and science, and also active modernization of the enterprise.
JEL codes: P11, J18, P35
Gurieva, Oksana, Barhatov, Viktor (2014). "Forecasting of Economic Efficiency of the City-Forming Enterprise in the Monotown" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2014, pp.216-220, Skopje, MACEDONIA.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C05.01106
