International Congress on Eurasian Economies
26-28 June 2024 – Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN
Paper properties
Paper ID : 2884
Status : Paper accepted
Language : Turkish
Topic : International Trade and Globalization
Presenter: Mr. Cahit Durmuş
Session : 7B Kalkınma
Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid in Kyrgyzstan? Empirical Evidence from the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
Kırgızistan’da İhracat Destekli Büyüme Hipotezi Geçerli mi? Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testinden Ampirik Kanıtlar
- Prof. Dr. Erkan Tokucu (Kafkas University, Türkiye)
- Mr. Cahit Durmuş (Radio and Television Supreme Council , Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Samet Topal (Kafkas University, Türkiye)
Abstract
In this study, the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis in the Kyrgyzstan economy is tested. For this purpose, annual GDP, export and import data of Kyrgyzstan for the period 1992-2022 are used. The causality relationship between the variables is analyzed using the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) causality approach. According to the FTY results, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from exports to imports and from GDP to exports in Kyrgyzstan. According to these results, it is seen that the export-led growth hypothesis is not valid in Kyrgyzstan's economy and the export-led economic growth hypothesis is valid in the country's economy. These results imply that economic growth encourages exports and exports encourage imports in Kyrgyzstan.
JEL codes: F14, F43, F00
