International Congress on Eurasian Economies
26-28 June 2024 – Bishkek, KYRGYZSTAN
Paper properties
Paper ID : 2475
Status : Paper submitted to journal
Language : Turkish
Topic : International Trade and Globalization
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Junus Ganiev
Session : 2B Uluslararası Ticaret
The Impact of Sanctions and Economic Integration on the Trade between Eurasian Economic Union Members: The Gravity Model Test
Yaptırımların ve İktisadi Entegrasyonun Avrasya Ekonomik Birliği Üyeleri Arasındaki Ticarete Etkisi: Çekim Modeli Testi
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Junus Ganiev (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Kyrgyzstan)
- Prof. Dr. Şaban Nazlıoğlu (Pamukkale University, Türkiye)
- Asst. Prof. Dr. Damira Baigonushova (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Kyrgyzstan)
Abstract
The customs union between the three countries, which was established in 2010, turned into an economic union in 2015 and the number of members increased to five. The main purpose of economic integration is to develop trade and economic relations between countries. However, after the joining of the Crimea to Russia in March 2014, the USA and the West have adopted economic sanctions against Russia and this still continues. This also affects trade between Russia and other countries. It is said that the trade relations of the union were negatively affected due to the contraction of the economy and the total foreign trade volume due to the sanctions, and the devaluation of the Russian ruble and later the currencies of other countries. On the other hand, as a result of the integration established at that time, it is expected that the countries' foreign trade with third countries narrowed and the trade between them may has been positively affected by their orientation to countries within the union. In this study, the panel data analysis and the annual data for the 2000-2019 period were used to test these hypotheses. The analysis is based on the gravity model and shadow variables were used to detect the effects of the sanctions and integration. It has been revealed that the gravity model is valid in the mutual trade of the Eurasian Economic Union. Three shadow variables were used in the regression estimation. However, it has been determined that only the economic union positively affected mutual trade.
JEL codes: F14, F15, F10
Session 2B: Uluslararası Ticaret
