International Congress on Eurasian Economies

International Conference on Eurasian Economies

10-12 July 2017 – Istanbul, TURKEY

Paper detail

Paper ID : 1951
Status : Paper published
Language : Turkish
Topic : Macroeconomics
Presenter: Asst. Prof. Dr. Filiz Yetiz
Session : 3B Finans I

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries
Döviz Kurunun Yurtiçi Fiyatlara Yansıması: OECD Ülkelerinden Bulgular

Abstract

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

JEL codes: C33, E31, E50

Bal, Harun, Demiral, Mehmet, Yetiz, Filiz (2017). "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries" in Proceedings of International Conference of Eurasian Economies 2017, pp.246-253, Istanbul, TURKEY.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/C08.01951

Full paper in PDF format.

Session 3B: Finans I

Eurasian Economists Association Beykent University Kyrgyzstan-Turkey Manas University TIKA Turkish Central Bank Kavram Vocational High School